Glenroy Brown, May 15,
Possible impact on Jamaica and the Caribbean.
The latest information
coming out of the Colorado State University is that the Atlantic hurricane season is
forecast to be well above average activity for the 2011 Atlantic
hurricane season. Professor William Grey
and his team continue to look at uncertainty about ENSO (El Niño/La Niña-Southern
Oscillation) and the maintenance of anomalously warm
Tropical Atlantic SST
(sea surface temperature) conditions.
through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average
season. They estimate that 2011
will have about 9 hurricanes, 16 named storms of which 5 will become major (Category 3-4-5)
They have decreased
their seasonal forecast slightly from the early December forecast, due to anomalous warming in
the eastern and central Tropical Pacific and cooling in the Tropical Atlantic.
Also, they expect
current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral during the heart of the hurricane
season. However, overall conditions remain
conducive for a very active hurricane Season.
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abroad who are seeking weather related information about the island of Jamaica.